Seasonality Trading: Is It a Myth?

Log into X in September and there’s a 50% chance your timeline is filled with talk about seasonality. “September tanks the market,” “Q4 sparks a crypto rally” - we’ve all seen the takes. Seasonality, those calendar-based patterns, gets hyped as a secret weapon. But is it really?

I’ve been burned chasing seasonal biases the chart didn’t support, and I’ve also bagged solid wins by using them as a subtle nudge. Let’s break down why seasonality trading is often a myth, why the chart in front of you is king, and how a touch of seasonal awareness can still sharpen your edge.

Why Seasonality Trading Is (Mostly) a Myth

Betting on historical patterns like September slumps or November rallies sounds sexy, but it’s shaky ground. The data’s noisy, especially in crypto’s short 15-year history. Take Bitcoin’s so-called “September curse.” Between 2017 and 2022, it closed red every year - but the last two Septembers have been green.

Yes, it is the worst month for the S&P 500 (down an average 1.2% since 1928, red 30% of the time), but trading bearish purely off that stat exposes a bigger problem: seasonality is a lagging signal.

It’s backward-looking, built on decades of averages that don’t reflect today’s high-frequency algos, whale games, or surprise Fed pivots. Chasing seasonality without real-time context is like trading a horoscope.

The market doesn’t care about your calendar.

The Chart in Front of You Is King

Unlike a table of monthly returns, a chart shows what’s happening right now. Price action, volume, and momentum reveal the actual state of the market rather than an average of the past.

If BTC is forming a double bottom at $100k with rising volume and a bullish divergence, that’s a signal - September or not.

What matters is conviction or hesitation: are big players stepping in, is sentiment shifting, are positions building? That immediacy is your edge. Without it, you’re playing a zero-sum game with the same historical tables everyone else can Google.

(Traders using journaling and analytics tools like CoinMarketMan can even see how their own data stacks up against the crowd in real time — far more valuable than a 20-year table of average returns.)

The Middle Ground: Using Seasonality as a Bias

Here’s the twist: seasonality isn’t useless, it just shouldn’t drive your trades.

Acknowledging seasonal patterns can give you a directional bias if the chart supports it. Think of it as a tiebreaker, not a trigger. If you’re heading into a historically bullish Q4 and your signals are split, seasonality might tilt the scales.

For instance, Bitcoin has historically shown strength in Q4, often rallying into year-end. If you’re already seeing higher lows, a breakout forming, or strong inflows, that seasonal tailwind can boost your confidence to size up or hold longer. Same goes for caution in historically weaker months.

Conclusion

If I make it short: seasonality is a lens, not a map. It can colour your perspective, but it should never replace the clarity of the chart in front of you.

Trade what you see, not what the calendar tells you. Wishing you a sharp and successful Q4.

— Dead Cat Bounce